Humans from societies with lower levels of technological development get crushed by those from those with higher levels of it. If the disparity is large enough, the technologically more developed sometimes don't mean to do so, or even notice having done so.
If an AI is immeasurably technologically more advanced than us, there is no reason it would not rearrange things to its own liking. There is no reason that that would involve the continuation of the human race.
"What is the probability that the firing of Sam Altman would not only prevent the death of all humanity but I do so definitively, with that one decision, and not lead to other unexpected catastrophes?"
I don't think this is the right question to ask. Firing Sam Altman will not stop whatever inflection point we are rushing towards (though I am in agreement that the existential crisis argument is ... silly) -- but nothing will stop us from moving forward - it is inevitable. But I do think the resulting turmoil and fallout from Altman being fired would have given us some time to get ready for whatever comes next for us, while also giving everyone a breather to focus on current day harms. As a species, we will never be completely ready for whatever is next for us, but we can more ready than we are today. The best we can hope for is more time to prepare.
Altman's rise to power signals a speed-up towards that inevitability, allowing him (and others in the tech sphere) to continue to ignore current day harms because the end justifies the means for them....and for Altman especially.
Humans from societies with lower levels of technological development get crushed by those from those with higher levels of it. If the disparity is large enough, the technologically more developed sometimes don't mean to do so, or even notice having done so.
If an AI is immeasurably technologically more advanced than us, there is no reason it would not rearrange things to its own liking. There is no reason that that would involve the continuation of the human race.
"What is the probability that the firing of Sam Altman would not only prevent the death of all humanity but I do so definitively, with that one decision, and not lead to other unexpected catastrophes?"
I don't think this is the right question to ask. Firing Sam Altman will not stop whatever inflection point we are rushing towards (though I am in agreement that the existential crisis argument is ... silly) -- but nothing will stop us from moving forward - it is inevitable. But I do think the resulting turmoil and fallout from Altman being fired would have given us some time to get ready for whatever comes next for us, while also giving everyone a breather to focus on current day harms. As a species, we will never be completely ready for whatever is next for us, but we can more ready than we are today. The best we can hope for is more time to prepare.
Altman's rise to power signals a speed-up towards that inevitability, allowing him (and others in the tech sphere) to continue to ignore current day harms because the end justifies the means for them....and for Altman especially.
A parent should not fear its own offspring! Watching our creation succeed us should be proud moment, though understandably hesitant.