Regression (to the Mean) Health

My awesome made up company

Men who leave their mark on the world are very often those who, being gifted and full of nervous power, are at the same time haunted and driven by a dominant idea, and are therefore within a measurable distance of insanity.

Francis Galton

I have the best company idea ever. Want to win in Value Based care population management? You can. It’s easy.

Maybe.

Here is my amazing venture-funding pitch, if we were still in a low cost of capital environment. Maybe a la 2020 I’d add "Web3” and “psychedelics.” Alas, now this great idea is only good for a math think piece.

Problem:

Healthcare is expensive. High utilization drives spending. We promise to save you money.

Solution:

A custom care management solution for high-cost members!

Criteria for enrollment:

Enroll the top 1% of claimants who also had the 1% highest cost increase last year.

Service provided:

We wait 1 year. Do nothing at all.

Our businesses model:

Sample the top 1% of claimants the next year.

For everyone one of our prior year's “…